Top Tier Contenders
The Leading Six
These six nations carry the highest mathematical model profiles for ultimate tournament victory, as backed by path odds and group dominance metrics.
#1
Group H
Spain
Model Win Chance
17.4%
Reach Final Probability
31.3%
Win Group Chance
81.8%
#2
Group I
France
Model Win Chance
16.7%
Reach Final Probability
25.0%
Win Group Chance
69.7%
#3
Group L
England
Model Win Chance
13.3%
Reach Final Probability
25.0%
Win Group Chance
76.2%
#4
Group C
Brazil
Model Win Chance
11.1%
Reach Final Probability
20.0%
Win Group Chance
78.7%
#5
Group J
Argentina
Model Win Chance
10.0%
Reach Final Probability
19.0%
Win Group Chance
77.3%
#6
Group K
Portugal
Model Win Chance
9.1%
Reach Final Probability
16.7%
Win Group Chance
69.7%
Home Soil Advantage
North American Co-Hosts
An analytical assessment of the tournament's host countries. Utilizing historical home advantage data points weighted against direct path coefficients.
United States
Model Rank
#12
Win Group Chance
44.4%
Reach Quarterfinals
26.7%
Mexico
Model Rank
#15
Win Group Chance
52.4%
Reach Quarterfinals
22.2%
Canada
Model Rank
#24
Win Group Chance
34.5%
Reach Quarterfinals
18.2%